Assumptions are necessary

We make hundreds of them each day since they help make decisions and take actions timely. Without assumptions, life would come to a stall.

We make assumptions when we lack the information needed to comprehend the situation that we are dealing with. It’s a thought that arises in the moment to fill in the missing pieces that enables the next step. When the assumptions turn out to be true, we have positive outcomes; when they turn out to be flawed, we experience disappointment, poor decisions, hurt relationships, and even emotional distress. Because assumptions have a direct impact or relationships and outcomes, it is extremely important to choose our assumptions consciously.

Types of situations we face

The assumptions we make vary with familiarity of the situation. Here, I discuss two broad classes of situations we face and the assumptions that transpire. I provide examples along with the risks they present. Being aware of the situation types, assumptions, and implications can help us make assumptions thoughtfully and achieve better outcomes.

Familiar situations

These are everyday situations where we make assumptions and judgements without much thought based on prior personal experience. The situations are almost routine, a regular occurrence. Here are a few examples:

Going to store to buy a gallon of milk: I hop into my car and drive to the store. At least two assumptions are implicit here – (i) that the car will get me to the store and back reliably; (ii) that my preferred store will have milk on the shelf. Neither of these assumptions are explicitly voiced but they are in effect. They influence my decision and action.
Drinking faucet water at home: When I am thirsty, I just drink water out of my tumbler filled from my faucet, without much thought. There is an implicit assumption that the city supply of water is clean.
Relying on weather forecast: Each morning I wake up and check the weather forecast. Given prior experiences, I assume that the forecast will be roughly right and plan my day accordingly.

These examples demonstrate that in familiar situations we rely on implicit assumptions drawing from prior experience. We should be aware however, that implicit assumptions can also prove to be flawed if the context changes, e.g., the car used to drive to a store may encounter technical problems, the store may not have milk on the shelf, or a reliable friend is not in the mood for interruptions, and the weather forecast can be off.

Being aware of the implicit assumptions can better prepare us with a backup plan should the assumption turn out flawed. Implicit assumptions, however, carry a low level of risk that can be mitigated – the car can be fixed, the next preferred store may have milk on the shelf, a true friend will come around with time, and we can adapt to an inaccurate forecast.

Unfamiliar situations

These are situations where the information needed to comprehend the situation is not readily available and a judgement or decision must be made based on one or more assumptions. I call these situations ‘non-routine’ or ‘fuzzy situations’ and the assumptions made here are sometimes hidden and at other times explicit. Assumptions made in unfamiliar or fuzzy situations exposes one to higher risks for unfavorable outcomes if the assumptions made turn out to be flawed. Here are a few examples:

Investing in stocks: This is a situation where the information needed to comprehend the situation is only partially available. We can look up past performance of the stock, read up on risk levels, read up on analyst recommendations, and the like. The one unknown is the most important piece of information – how will the stock perform in the future? Since this is an unknown, we have to make an assumption, e.g., with inflation coming down, the stock market will likely go up. If the assumption holds true, one is likely to come out ahead; if not, there is a risk of loss with the investment. Only time will tell if the assumption holds true or flawed.
A trip to the golf driving range: I am recovering from neck and upper back injury from playing too much pickleball. Physical therapy has helped, and my condition has improved. I assumed that I was doing well enough to hit a small bucket of 35 golf balls and made a trip to the driving range. I had a lovely evening and as it turned out, my assumption that “I was doing well enough” held true. The following week I decided to hit a large bucket of 80 golf balls assuming that ‘I have recovered enough to swing through 80 balls’. I had fun on the range but by the time I got home, I was in agony. My assumption with the large bucket turned out to be flawed and I had to pay the price for it.
Changing jobs for better medical benefits: A friend of mine worked for a good company and was paid quite well. He got an offer from a startup, which had superior healthcare coverage, and slightly lower pay. Even though startups have business risks as compared to established companies, he quit his job for a better health care package with the startup. Three months into his new job the healthcare package was slashed.

The examples demonstrate that in unfamiliar situations, assumptions need to be made carefully so the decisions made are conscious, and not implicit. There is an increased level of risk and if the assumptions turn out to be flawed, the outcomes are often quite unpleasant.

It is wise to make assumptions with care

We can improve our performance on assumption making, particularly in unfamiliar settings by verifying our choice of assumptions before acting on them. Below are some tips:

Stay away from rushing to conclusions.
Reflect on the direction you are leaning towards in a given situation; is personal bias at play.
Ask yourself the question “what assumptions am I making in this situation?”
Seek input from others with experience in the situation unfamiliar to you.
Explore the potential risks.
Make a conscious decision rather than an impulsive choice.

Thoughtful assumptions will improve the quality of outcomes in unfamiliar situations, minimizing disappointments, poor decisions, hurt relationships, and emotional distress. Also, when thoughtful assumptions turn out to be flawed, we are better prepared to accept responsibility for the consequences.